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In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he became the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the role over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for many years – possibly not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and deficit are now nearly double the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The leader's team announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, like his predecessors, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by some miracle, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that cultural shift will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”