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Introduction

The inherent challenges of group stage tennis mean at this point of the season-ending championships fans frequently find themselves confused, scrambling about for a mathematical tool and trying to work out the complex potential outcomes for advancement. But this evening's contest between Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime, fortunately, is simple. This is a winner-takes-all affair: the victor earns a final four matchup against Carlos Alcaraz at this year-end tournament; the unsuccessful competitor goes home.

The German is the frontrunner for this: the world No 3 is the player with greater achievements, has claimed the title at this tournament previously on two instances and holds the advantage in their personal record with six victories against three defeats, having won both their previous matches on an enclosed hard court.

But … this is the surface on which Felix has secured the majority of his titles, he’s riding a high after his compelling comeback against Shelton on Wednesday and he took out the German in the US Championships early stage in late summer. Additionally, the playing speed is higher in Turin than at Flushing Meadows, which provides an additional advantage in Auger-Aliassime's favour.

If Zverev holds back, like he was against the Italian, and Auger-Aliassime takes it to the European player with his powerful serves and bold strategy, it could well be the North American athlete – the one-time phenom who was previously positioned before the younger champions to replace the Big Three – who obtains the questionable privilege of facing the world No 1 tomorrow.

The match starts: at around 20:30 in the host city, 7.30pm GMT.